mardi 4 novembre 2014

The foam bath - current bubbles

Here is my list of current bubbles. There are so many of them that it is looking now rather like a foam bath. The characteristic of most of them, behind the scenes: an explosive accumulation of debt - at a much faster pace than any real-economy growth.
  • tech companies (especially those speculating on their own shares with new debt)
  • stocks (most) (reason: record margin debt, companies speculating on their own shares, rush of small investors channeled into the stock market by negative real interest rates on deposits)
  • shale oil companies (producing at a loss, breakeven price at least 150$ / barrel, now losses going faster due to oil prices under 80$)
  • junk bonds (repackaged at record pace into AAA-rated CDO's / CLO's !)
  • bonds (most, especially government bonds)
  • real estate in "hot" places (worldwide)
  • student loans
  • auto loans (especially subprime)
  • home equity loans


Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire

Avindex 1.0, the Big Mac(ron) edition

Stock markets celebrated the election of Emmanuel Macron with VIX (implied volatility index) close to record lows, below 10. On the big...