jeudi 8 juin 2017

Up, up, up!

Here is a firework of charts that should speak for themselves...

We begin with the Bitcoin:

Then, ladies and gentlemen: the FANGA team (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Apple):

Click to enlarge

Note that AMZN and GOOGL have reached the 1000$ level almost together. Wow! Congratulations (to the sellers)!

Now, the Dow Jones index, monitored by a very famous Twitter user:

We are a bit plateau-ing here, but still 18% above the "big, fat, ugly bubble" level.
A plateau is bad. People could become hesitant. "We have to go up, up, up"!
Here a zoom out:

The hundreds of billions created and injected every month in the markets by central banks are helpful, of course, for maintaining the uptrend.

Here, a small contributor - but direct buyer of US and European shares - the Swiss National Bank.

Here in logarithmic scale (doubling at each row up):

Two remarks about this:
  • Since last August, the SNB owns more publicly-traded shares in Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg! Source here.
  • The production of central-bank Swiss francs (the credit-based ones from commercial banks is yet another source of fresh money...) is more than 4 billion monthly on average since 2008. Each monthly injection could be enough to finance a bunch of fighter jets, a major tunnel, a social security gap... This for 113 months now!
Not only central banks contribute to the stock market records. There are share buybacks (companies buying their own shares, often with borrowed money) and margin debt (debt directly used for speculation):

Now, you may have some vertigo with all these steep curves.

So, here a flat one - Japan's inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index:

Better ? I have even decreasing curves: central-bank and government yields over time for different durations, from overnight to 30 years (back to Switzerland):

and mortgage rates (fixed-rate 5-year & 10-year mortgage rates of a certain bank, but the other ones follow the same trend):

Happy, now ?

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