vendredi 5 décembre 2014

The foam bath - current bubbles - update #1

Here is my updated list of current bubbles. There are so many of them that it is looking now rather like a foam bath. The characteristic of most of them, behind the scenes: an explosive accumulation of debt - at a much faster pace than the real-economy growth (if any).

  1. Japan public debt and the yen (currency devaluation likelier than debt restructuring)
  2. Shale oil companies (producing at a loss, break-even price at least 150$ / barrel [link 1], now losses going faster due to oil prices under 80$ 70$) - more links about oil and the shale scam [link 2],[link 3]
  3. Junk bonds [link 1][link 2] (repackaged at record pace into AAA-rated CDO's / CLO's [link 3] !)
  4. Tech companies (especially those speculating on their own shares with new debt)
  5. Stocks (most) (reason: record margin debt [source], companies speculating on their own shares with borrowed money, rush of small investors channeled into the stock market by negative real interest rates on deposits)
  6. Bonds (most, especially government bonds)
  7. Real estate in "hot" places in the world
  8. Auto loans (especially subprime)
  9. Student loans
  10. Home equity loans

Related articles:
The foam bath
The multi-bubble

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