vendredi 15 décembre 2017

Largest bubble in history?

According to a study cited by Marketwatch, the current Bitcoin bubble is the largest bubble in history, with a x64 factor in three years ("Bitcoin bubble" meaning: "Bitcoin is in a bubble", not "Bitcoin is a bubble").

Is it the largest one? If you follow Bitcoin for long, there was already a mania in 2013 (red rectangle). Let's zoom on it.

The factor is around x4600 on 3 years.
Oh, but there is more  (another red rectangle zoomed):

Factor is around x2000 on 3 years for the early 2013 bubble. And again:

Factor for the 2011 peak is infinite since the initial value in USD was 0 (and there was no Bitcoin in activity in 2008).
Interactive chart from is visible here.

To summarize, the hit-parade of bubbles would be rather:
  1. Bitcoin 2011
  2. Bitcoin end 2013
  3. Bitcoin early 2013
  4. Bitcoin 2017 (ongoing...)
  5. Tulip-mania 1637

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